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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.